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Some of my Predictions for the 2008 Marin Real Estate Market
1. Home Prices Will Decline and then Rise modestly
- Median home prices will continue to fall in softened markets (San Rafael, Novoto, and Sausalito). They won't
take a nose dive; though, they will float, slipping left to right, then left again, and closer and closer to a
landing spot. Overpriced listing will die very fast. The best areas for continued growth will be
Mill Valley, Larkspur and Greenbrae.
2. Buyers Will Write Lowball Offers
- Novice buyers will read newspaper headlines, figure out it is a buyer's market and write lowball offers. Sellers should expect to receive an abnormal number of out-of-whack offers from buyers who will throw low offers to see if something sticks.
3. Inventory Will Increase Before Sharply Dropping
- As the New Year rolls around, sellers whose listings expired in 2007 will put their homes back on the market as a new listing. Nobody will be fooled. Inventory will continue to climb until mid-summer, at which point sellers will begin to realize they must either remove their home from the market or be reasonable. Most will choose to remove their homes from active status and inventory will begin to fall. Good homes in great neighborhoods will continue to receive offers and in some cases multiple ones.
4. Short Sales & Foreclosures Will Increase
- Interest rates on 3-year and 5-year ARMs will begin adjusting, and those who pay interest on Option ARMS including many buyers who used 100% financing in 2005, will begin to lose their homes. Many banks will refuse to negotiate short sales on properties (those sales for less than the mortgage balance) paving the way for a flood of bank-owned properties to hit the market.
5. Interest Rates Will Stabilize
- Mortgage interest Rates will move backward within one-quarter to one-half point, and buyers will gravitate towards traditional fixed rate mortgages if they can qualify. Buyers who cannot qualify for conventional loans will lean toward seller-financed instruments such as lease options or land contracts purchases.
6. More Investors Will Enter the Market
- Because investors use different criteria than traditional home buyers, investors will return to the market as they begin to recognize that a buyer's market is an excellent time to purchase real estate. As usual in this type of market first time home buyers will find themselves competing with all-cash investors.
7. Real Estate Advertising Will Move Online
- As newspaper advertising and readership continues to decline, agents will question whether their advertising dollars are better spent elsewhere. Print advertising will lose its effectiveness. If postal rates continue to increase, agents will stop using direct mail campaigns and instead use internet listings for better results and low-cost marketing strategies.
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